MARGAO
Why is minority Salcete so crucial to Congress to form the government in 2022? For an answer, take a look at the results of the 2012 and 2017 assembly elections which provide an insight into whether Salcete, wherein eight out of 40 seats are at stake, will propel Congress in forming the government in 2022.
None other than Congress leaders know that any setback in its traditional stronghold Salcete can have a bearing on government formation for the opposition party. Take note, there was no palpable anti-Congress sentiment in Salcete like in 2017 when the party made a clean sweep in the taluka. This time around, however, the party had to contend with local satraps in a couple of seats, capable enough to storm the Congress fort.
That’s not all. Perhaps for the first time in recent history, the Congress party had to go into the poll campaign without any senior Catholic leader worth his name. Barring South Goa Member Parliament Francisco Sardinha, who made his presence felt in a couple of seats at the fag-end of the campaign, no other senior minority leader was seen in Salcete countryside during the campaign.
On the other hand, well-known faces such as Luizinho Faleiro, Churchill Alemao, Filipe Nery Rodrigues, Reginaldo Lourenco and not to mention Mickky Pacheco were all arrayed against the party in its fiefdom.
Saxtti stat says it all
A glance at the election statistics showed that the Congress was reduced to a single digit in 2012 when the party won just two out of the eight seats in Salcete.
Comparatively, the Congress came close in forming the government in 2017 when the party along with like-minded parties made a clean sweep in Salcete, wining all the eight seats at stake. It’s a different story that Congress could not form the government in 2017 despite emerging as the single-largest party with 17 seats.
Results of the two elections give a clear insight that Congress comes close to forming the government whenever the party puts up a commendable show in minority Salcete.
It is not out of place to mention here that the Congress under the leadership of then chief minister Digambar Kamat formed the government in 2007 despite the party winning only four seats, with the fourth seat going to alliance partner, Nationalist Congress Party.
The Congress, however, had improved its tally post-election when the Save Goa Party with its two MLAs, Churchill Alemao and Reginaldo Lourenco merged lock, stock and barrel into the Congress.
How the equations stack up in Salcete
Congress is facing a herculean task to repeat its 2017 poll performance in 2022. And, the reason is not far too seek. The party is not only facing a challenge from non-BJP parties such as the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) but from local satraps, who were former Congressmen and now are in the fray either as Independents or on party banners, including former minister Filipe Nery Rodrigues.
Assuming that Opposition leader Digambar Kamat retains Margao, Yuri Alemao makes his debut from Cuncolim and the helping 'Hand' comes to the rescue of heavyweight Aleixo Sequeira, the Congress is indeed facing a challenge to maintain its supremacy and stranglehold over the remaining seats of Benaulim, Navelim, Velim and Curtorim.
Benaulim
Congress has not won a single election in Benaulim in the last two decades. And, the ground reality indicates that the fight for Benaulim has narrowed down between Trinamool Congress MLA Churchill Alemao and his AAP challenger Venzy Viegas. No doubt, Congress nominee Tony Dias did manage to cover a lot of ground, but indications emanating from Benaulim say the party may be stranded midway in the race. That has thrown up a moot question of how Congress will go about if TMC or AAP win the Benaulim seat.
Navelim
The Trinamool Congress is again in the reckoning for the Navelim seat along with Congress nominee Avertano Furtado, AAP candidate Pratima Coutinho, BJP’s Ulhas Tuemkar and others. Polling for the Navelim seat seemed to have thrown up a host of possibilities. One, many say TMC candidate Valanka Alemao, backed by the Luizinho-Churchill combine, made headway in the constituency but has been challenged by the Congress, AAP and the NCP. Political observers say the BJP may be in the reckoning for the Navelim seat in the event of a multiple split in the non-BJP vote.
Velim
Many say that seasoned political campaigner Filipe Nery Rodrigues, seeking his fifth election from Velim, this time on the NCP banner, is back in contention for the seat. A Congress stronghold, Velim has a history of flowing against the electoral tide as evident in the results of 1994, 2002, 2012 elections when Independents had defeated the Congress in its bastion. Many say the Congress is facing a tough battle to retain its hold over Velim, challenged by the NCP, TMC’s candidate Benjamin D’Silva and Aam Aadmi Party’s Cruz Silva.
Curtorim
Three-time MLA Reginaldo Lourenco had started his political career a decade and a half ago in 2007 after making it to the Legislative Assembly on the Save Goa Front banner by defeating Congress’ Francisco Sardinha. Contesting the election as an Independent, observers say Reginaldo is back in contention for the seat, posing a direct challenge to Congress to retain the seat.
