PANAJI
A State-wide survey undertaken by Prudent-Department of Management Studies, Goa
University has shown that voters would prefer a new government to rule the State
for the next five years, but the BJP-could still be in the reckoning as the general perception is that there is no alternative (TINA) to it. Of the 13 constituencies for
which results were tabulated, the ruling BJP has an edge and could retain as many as nine of them due to a combination of work done by the government and a fragmented opposition. In the present Assembly, BJP MLAs represent nine constituencies while two are represented by independent MLAs. The Congress party has one MLA while one has an unattached representative. (See boxes below) The biggest danger to the government is anti-incumbency and a united opposition, and these two factors could pull the rug from under the feet of the Parsekar government. In Mandrem for instance, Chief Minister Laxmikant Parsekar could sail through provided the opposition remains divided, while in Porvorim Rohan Khaunte needs a combined opposition to retain the seat. The survey showed that while the voter is willing to experiment with a new government, the general perception is that the BJP will form the next government, probably because the party is in power at the Centre and the absence of a formidable counter force. The Congress seems to have virtually no presence in these 13 constituencies in the North and could be rendered impotent in the absence of a grand alliance and the deep penetration made by AAP. Despite anti-incumbency, the government will go to the polls with something tangible to show. The survey showed that 57.8 per cent of the voters said the government did a good job with 7.8 per cent rating it as very good. However, 22.8 per cent of the voters thought the government performed badly while 11.6 per cent rated it as very bad.
But despite the good work, nearly 65 per cent of the voters said they would prefer a
new government and that is because though the government did works it was still below
the level expected by the voter. The biggest gain for the Congress is that 19.6 per cent,
the highest, would prefer to see a Congress-only government take charge in the state,
with 15.2 per cent rooting for a BJP government. The perks of being an MLA apart, the toughest voter demand to fulfill is jobs. Nearly 44.3 per cent of the electorate said that the number one task of the MLA is to provide jobs, with development of the constituency
coming in second with 22.2 per cent rooting for it. Over 10 per cent thought it was the duty of the MLA to ensure that work in government offices is done. Of the 13 MLA whose political future will be decided by voters in 2017, the independents face the toughest challenge. In Bicholim, Naresh Sawal, who won thanks to a split in votes, needs the support of a combined opposition to sail through. The biggest upset however, could take place in Taleigao where the AAP has gained ground at the cost of the Monserrate clan and the BJP. The seat is no longer safe for Jennifer Monserrate, nor can the BJP assume victory. The 13 constituencies, most of which are BJP strongholds, do not tell the whole story though, and a complete picture will emerge on Thursday when tabulations for all constituencies are available.
