PANAJI
The BJP-MGP alliance is poised to return to power in the 2017 assembly polls, largely due to external and internal factors.
While the BJP has benefited immensely from a disconnected Congress, a divided opposition and shaky independents, the party has also capitalised on its internal strengths in the form of a well-oiled party organisation, strong voter connect and emphasis on its social welfare schemes.
A clear picture of the upcoming 2017 assembly elections has emerged from a survey conducted by Prudent Media and the Goa University’s Department of Management Studies.
Though less than half of the voters in the survey expressed their support to the BJP, it is more than sufficient for any organised party or alliance to secure 30-35% votes to have a simple majority and form the government in a parliamentary democracy.
The BJP is poised to move along this path. Although many voters are not satisfied with the BJP government’s performance, these unhappy votes will be divided among the opposition parties and the BJP would benefit the most from this fractured opposition.
In the 2012 assembly elections, the BJP got 34.68% of the vote share and 21 seats. In the 2017 assembly elections, they are expected to get at least 35% votes, but could also lose 2-3 seats in the process.
In such a situation, BJP’s alliance with MGP will be the deciding factor to see them return to power. If BJP and MGP continue their alliance, the voter percentage could well rise to 46.2%, with the remaining 53.8 % divided between the Congress, NCP, AAP, Goa forward, Independents and others.
The voting percentage of Congress has slipped from 30.78% to 20%, with 10% of the voter share shifting to the AAP. As elections approach, the AAP is expected to pull an even greater chunk of voters from the Congress, putting it in further trouble.
The growing popularity of AAP only bodes well for the BJP and even if Goa Forward makes a mark in the polls, the BJP would not be affected in any possible manner.
As many as 30.3% voters felt that there is no need to change the government, while 15.2% voters want a change in government, but would eventually vote for the same party. As such, a significant 45.5% of voters are backing the BJP, while 7.7% voters want a BJP-MGP government.
Given the present political trends, voters in the survey were asked to predict which government would come to power and 32.8% of them felt the BJP government would return to power on their own, while 13.4% of voters felt the BJP-MGP alliance would come to power.
The survey also indicated the declining popularity of Congress, with only 21.3% voters believing that it could form the government. Incidentally, only 9.2% voters were of the view that an alliance led by the Congress could come to power. This indicates that a BJP-MGP alliance has been favoured by 46.2% of voters, while only 30.5% of voters believe in the Congress-NCP alliance.
AAP many be a new entrant in Goan politics, but it has already strengthened its position in at least 5-6 constituencies. According to 10% voters, AAP can form the government in Goa. While Goa Forward does not have such popularity among voters, 8.7% of voters believe that the Goa Forward and AAP can forge an alliance to form a government. But with AAP’s clear strategy to contest alone in other states, the possibility of AAP-Goa Forward alliance is virtually ruled out.
There have been rumours that BJP and MGP could end their alliance and contest separately. But given the close relations between MGP leader Sudin Dhavlikar and BJP leaders Manohar Parrikar and Laxmikant Parsekar, the possibility of BJP and MGP severing ties appear remote, given the huge political benefits of an alliance.
Given these trends, it is increasingly clear that the BJP-MGP alliance would form the government after 2017 Goa assembly elections.
