PANAJI
Goa is witnessing the repercussions of climate change in multiple ways. Extreme heat or excess rainfall causes crop damage. El Nino phenomena may bring heat wave in Goa in the coming months, warns Dr M R Ramesh Kumar, former chief scientist at National Institute of Oceanography (NIO), Dona Paula.
“Extreme events such as; intense rainfall events (rainfall more than 10 cm in a day), droughts, floods, cyclones are on the rise after a triple La Nina (2020, 2021 and 2022) condition. In 2023 we had the El Nino phenomenon over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean which had a detrimental effect on the Indian monsoon and our State of Goa. For example, there was exceptionally good rainfall in the month of July which was the highest over the past 76 years in Goa, whereas, the month of August 2023 was one of the driest of the last century,” reminds Dr Ramesh Kumar.
Predicting that the current year (2024) will receive normal to excess rainfall for Goa as the El Nino over the Pacific Ocean will diminish or disappear by the end of May 2024, and La Nina conditions will appear from July to September after the neutral El Nino conditions, he adds, “This La Nina conditions will give rise to exceptionally good rainfall over most of the meteorological subdivisions of the Indian Subcontinent including the Konkan and Goa subdivision. This is basically due to strong low level jet streams at a height of about 1,500 metres above sea level, strong cross-equatorial flow etc.”
Mentioning that the last decade (2014-2023) was the warmest of the century with temperatures rising by almost 1.45 C, which is very near to the threshold of 1.5 C, the scientist points out that most of the countries have agreed to keep it below this value. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has projected that by the end of this century, global earth temperature is likely to increase by 1.8 C to 4.0 C which is a cause of concern in itself.
“This would lead to more frequent hot extremes, floods, droughts, cyclones and recession of glaciers. The present temperature data thus shows a rapid rise in temperatures over the globe and the Indian subcontinent and our own State of Goa,” says the scientist, adding, “This in turn, can affect agriculture, water table, environment, flora and fauna and overall health of the living beings on the planet. This rise in temperature has shrunk the population of the Polar Bears in the Arctic and Emperor Penguins in the Antarctic regions.”
Last month, on February 20-21 the government of Goa and World Bank had jointly organised India Climate and Development Partners Meet-2024 in Panaji. Here, the government of Goa announced the creation of India's first blended financing facility, in partnership with the World Bank, to facilitate climate-resilient and low-carbon investments.
Rising temperatures, floods and cyclones are results of climate change along with the rising sea levels which is a cause of concern for those living on the coastline, many of which are low-lying islands in Goa. The urban cities also are flooding, due to mismanagement and land use and land change pattern, haphazard constructions converting paddy fields into residential complexes,” concludes Dr Ramesh Kumar.
