With Covid-19 showing no signs of abating, here is an answer to a simple problem.
The total production of vaccines is 27 lakh doses a day in the country. This production cannot be increased for the next 18-24 months. The country has already administered 1st dose to approximately 30-50 lakh senior citizens from March 1. (This was possible because SII had started producing vaccines before phase 1 began in India and had stock on hand). The 60+ became eligible for the 2nd dose after 6 weeks (ie from April 15).
Question 1: How many senior citizens will have to be vaccinated for the 2nd dose from April 15 everyday? Answer: 30-50 lakh every day.
Q2: How many doses will be available for 45+ category from April 15? Answer: Zero
Q3: How then are the 45+ being vaccinated?
A3: Because tens of thousands of 60+ are unwilling to jostle with the crowds at vaccination centres. Thus they will not be fully vaccinated defeating the very purpose of the vaccination programme.
Result: Total chaos if vaccinations are opened up for all.
The solution: 1. Put on hold vaccination of 18+ category. 2. Prioritize 2nd dose for 60+ for a few weeks. 3. Prioritize 2nd dose for 45+ from May 15.
Thereafter move forward in a calibrated manner always factoring in the 2nd dose else there will be total chaos.
