In a state as split down the middle as Gujarat, where they votefor either the Congress or the BJP, or the other way round over the last threeor four elections, who are these “others”?
Keshubhai Patel’s Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP), the newkid on the block. The former chief minister and the one hailed as the man whocould help the Congress take on Narendra Modi.
At 10.35 am (on December 20), as the anchor on Times Nowreports that Keshubhai Patel himself is trailing, one wonders why he was takenas such a big shot ” by the media and the Congress.
“Patel is riding high over the possible support of the LeuvaPatel community and could influence at least 20 seats in the Saurashtra region.Known as ‘Bapa’, Keshubhai’s tours to counter Modi could not only hurt the BJPbut also the Congress,” reported the Indian Express on December 19.
In a news report on December 13, whgen the first phase ofpolling took place, Mail Today, in a story headlined “Keshubhai Patel's partymay play spoilsport for BJP in Saurashtra”, reported: “Political pundits hadrelegated the GPP to the margins of the state polity until BJP MP Navjot SinghSidhu called the Patel patriarch anti-national at a public meeting in Visavadarrecently. Sidhu's remark, which left many in Gujarat BJP left-faced, seems tohave hurt the Patel community deeply. "This is a disaster for the BJP andits impact is only getting magnified by the days as the poll date drawsclose," says a senior BJP leader from the region. "For all practicalpurposes, this may decimate the party in this area.”
These are just two reports but that’s the line of mostanalysts took. While Keshubhai might win by the time the last vote is countedin his constituency, and while the GPP might have polled about 10 percent votesby the end of the day and by that logic might have stopped a bigger BJP sweep,he has not moved an inch an as the leader of an independent party, and thus thequestions remain.
Here are 4 reasons why most analysts got it wrong:
1. Hype: We Indians cannot live far off the thrill broughtforth by the new kid on the block syndrome. It’s in our psyche to fall for theexcitement of the ‘outsider’ factor ” be it Bollywood films or elections (theWest Bengal media bought into the Mamata Banerjee factor for years, electionafter election, before 2011). And we all fell for it ” hook, line and sinker.
2. David vs Goliath cliché: Let’s face it, we again lovethat. Where’s life without the small man taking on the big one? Who doesn’tlike drama, and that, too, masala maar ke! It’s another matter that theCongress might have done better by focussing on its strengths ” espousinggenuine ‘secularism’, pro-poor arithmetic and harping on the demagogic/despoticnature of Modi and his administration ” rather than depending on Keshubhai tobring it some seats and luck.
3. Bring down the big boot: Carrying on from the earlierone, like we love the small man to win big, we also love the disgrace faced bythe big man. Modi may be good, may even be god for some, but is he good enoughto carry on? Nah, like most analysts propped up the anarchist Mamata in Bengalto beat the Left front ‘jackboot’, the same line of thought acted here: If Modihas to be brought down, it’s got to be the insider turned outsider aligned withthe Congress.
4. Analyse with ease: We Indians are all analysts ” we loveto analyse the good spell of a bad monsoon, why Obama should or should notcrack down on gun laws (matters little that firearms, and not countrymadeweapons that are as easily available in the hinterland as chewing gum, aren’t anovelty for us), and surmising Sachin Tendulkar’s lack of hand-eye coordinationis a national game. We also love to examine trends: the number of peopleattending a rally by Sonia vs one by Modi vs a one by Keshubhai, the ‘mood’ inthose rallies, the polling day crowd, the prevalent ‘mood’ in that crowd,whether people were wearing their Sunday best on poll day (could be good forthe incumbent) or the men did not shave that morning (bad for the incumbent?),the number of people who voted in the first four hours (must be good for theincumbent) against those who “thronged the polling booths” in the last fourhour (anti-incumbency trend?)... By nature, we are all trend-spotters.
The problem is, trends do not add up in most cases becauseby our very nature we also love the surprise element. So we love to surprisethe trend-spotters by proving them wrong. And going by that logic, KeshubhaiPatel won’t really be surprised as the counting carries on and the heatescalates on a nicely sunny winter day.
