Sanguem: A new political equation emerges around ST reservation

SANGUEM
Sanguem’s political landscape is taking shape around three issues ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections — ST reservation, possible alliances and candidate selection.
The Centre’s move in August to set the legal process in motion for reservation of four Assembly constituencies for Scheduled Tribes has intensified speculation over Sanguem. The constituency has consistently figured among the likely seats to be reserved, although the final allocation will depend on the delimitation and reservation process. Tribal Welfare Minister Ramesh Tawadkar said the government expects ST reservation to be implemented before the 2027 polls.
If the constituency is reserved, established political parties will have to identify new ST leadership, while existing political networks will have to adapt to a substantially different electoral equation.
One-candidate strategy for ST
The ST community has already witnessed discussions about avoiding a division of the tribal vote. At a meeting in Kudchire-Rivona in July, community leaders discussed the possibility of supporting a single consensus ST candidate if reservation was not implemented. The meeting was attended by several political figures, including former MLA Prasad Gaonkar and aspiring Congress candidate Satyavan Gaonkar.
The possibility of several ST candidates could divide the tribal vote, while a consensus around fewer candidates could significantly alter the electoral arithmetic. This is particularly relevant to Congress, which would have to determine whether its candidate can command support beyond the traditional party vote and establish credibility across tribal communities and villages.
ST vote is not a single bloc
The ST electorate, however, is not a uniform vote bank. Sanguem has witnessed competing views within the tribal community itself. While one section has strongly demanded immediate reservation of the constituency, another has argued that reservation should follow a fresh census and proper delimitation process.
This suggests that tribal voters can have differing political priorities even when they share a common demand for greater representation. For Congress and other parties, the challenge therefore extends beyond supporting the reservation demand. Questions of employment, land, mining, agriculture, roads, drinking water, education, healthcare and development in interior villages are also likely to influence voters.
The BJP enters the 2027 contest with the advantage of having won Sanguem in 2022. Subhash Phal Dessai has indicated that he will abide by the party’s decision if Sanguem is reserved and would campaign for the BJP’s ST candidate if required.
The BJP could retain an organisational advantage, but reservation would require established parties to transfer their networks to new candidates.
Choice of Congress candidate
For Congress, the issue is particularly significant. The party’s 2022 candidate, Prasad Gaonkar, remains in the fray for the Congress ticket in Sanguem, having previously represented the constituency as an Independent. However, the changing political circumstances have opened the possibility of a new generation of ST leadership emerging within the party.
One name that has already entered the discussion is Satyavan Gaonkar, a mining engineer who has been reported as an aspiring Congress candidate and has indicated willingness to contest from Sanguem.
The eventual candidate’s challenge will be to build a constituency-wide organisation, combining a strong presence in ST-dominated areas with support among non-ST voters. Grassroots reach, booth-level organisation and sustained presence in villages will therefore be as important as the Congress label.
Influence of vote division
Sanguem’s recent electoral history demonstrates how a multi-cornered contest can affect the result. In 2022, BJP’s Subhash Phal Dessai won the seat with about 37 per cent of the vote, while Independent candidate Savitri Chandrakant Kavlekar secured around 31 per cent and Congress candidate Prasad Gaonkar around 20 per cent.
The figures underline the impact of a multi-cornered contest. For 2027, the ability of political parties and candidates to consolidate support could therefore be significant.
New political equations
Sanguem’s political contest is consequently developing around three interconnected questions. First, will Sanguem ultimately become an ST-reserved constituency? Second, if it does, which ST leaders will emerge as the principal candidates of the major political parties? Third, can any candidate build support across the constituency rather than relying on a single community, village network or party vote?
With ST reservation potentially reshaping the constituency, the 2027 contest could turn on the interaction between tribal representation, candidate credibility, local organisation and vote consolidation.
GFP factor
The presence of the Goa Forward Party (GFP) cannot be ignored in the emerging Sanguem equation. Although GFP has recently entered into an electoral alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party under the “Goa First” banner for the 2027 elections, the possibility of a broader opposition understanding remains a subject of political discussion. Congress has publicly indicated that its doors remain open for a renewed understanding with GFP.
Any Congress-GFP understanding could assume significance if it prevents the two parties from fielding separate candidates. Such coordination could reduce opposition vote fragmentation, particularly in a constituency where the 2022 result demonstrated the impact of a multi-cornered contest.