This is not the first time Babush Monserrate is surviving “jail ki hawa”. Probably, this wouldn’t be the last. In spite of these periodical lock up tours, he has incessantly fought elections and consistently won them. May be this time too, he would emerge a victor.
Being a criminal (and I am not saying Babush is one as he is not convicted in any of the cases against him yet) and winning elections are sadly not correlated in this country. Rather, people feel “sympathetic” towards the person who has been subjected to police custody as a due process of law. An enigmatic “sympathy wave” gets created and people get emotionally swept away. They end up voting for the person with grievous criminal charges against his name.
In no way is winning an election a certification of innocence. The court of law undoubtedly outweighs pulls of politics. But seldom does a politician get tried and convicted or acquitted within a span of two elections. Our discouraging pace of justice delivery system ensures that he remains an “under trial” till he acquires a senior citizen card and contests and wins several elections.
Babush Monserrate is no different. He is fishing for an opportunity in this adversity. After pleading his innocence before the media, he surrendered. He refrained from applying for bail allowing police abundant time to conduct various tests on him and to interrogate him in the police custody. He has preferred to be very tactful and strategic while dealing with these serious accusations. You cannot lock up a person forever unless he is a “threat” to the society. Babush wants to serve full 14 days of police remand and apply for bail once court decides to transfer him to judicial custody.
Babush Monserrate is an elected representative of Goa Legislative Assembly and he is supposedly cooperating with the investigative agencies. How long can you keep such a person in jail as an “under trial”? Police will argue that he is a habitual offender. But will they succeed to keep him locked till the assembly election in 2017? Seems unlikely.
The point is “ what will happen once Babush Monserrate comes out of the police lock up? Will people’s standpoint towards him change? Will his approval level deteriorate? Will it create any dent in his vote share? Or will he be looked upon with sympathy and showered with votes?
The BJP cannot afford to antagonize Babush in Tiswadi. Currently, he holds tremendous influence over three constituencies “ Taleigao, St Cruz and BJP’s most prestigious seat: Panaji. There are two factions within the BJP. One faction believes in calling a truce with the Taleigao heavyweight. The second section wants to completely bulldoze the tainted politician. This second group of individuals within the BJP cherishes the idea of winning Taleigao through Dattaprasad Naik, snatching St Cruz away from the clutches of Monserrate and making Panaji free of his influence. The first group clearly does not believe that it is possible. This group wants to swing the balance of Tiswadi in BJP’s favor by maintaining him as an imperceptible partner. They want to utilise his clout and influence to weaken Congress while safeguarding the capital city constituency. For them, Babush is a strategic collaborator if not a natural ally.
Till last week, Babush was reverberating similar emotions for the BJP. He wanted to strengthen the UGDP with a sole intention of damaging Congress in Tiswadi (especially St Andre) and Salcete. But a week is a long time in politics and a rabid Babush is unpredictably aggressive and offensive. How will he play this once he is out?
Much of these answers would depend upon the forensic, circumstantial and digital evidence that is supposedly in the possession of Goa Police. If the version of Goa police is to be believed than they have recovered a “blood stained” bed sheet from Babush’s farmhouse. Although washed once, it still carries traces of blood. Police also claim to have strong digital evidence in the form of phone records and call details. The all-important bed sheet will be sent to DNA testing at CFSL Hyderabad. In my opinion, Babush’s political response to this ongoing investigation would depend upon the genuineness and outcome of this evidence.
If the DNA result comes back positive, stating that the blood on the blood sheets is indeed of the minor girl, than Babush Monserrate would be staring at rigorous imprisonment on multiple counts. If it comes back negative or inconclusive, than the St Cruz strongman would launch a full throttle onslaught on the BJP in the upcoming assembly election. There is only one factor that can keep the humiliated, frustrated and revengeful Monserrate down “ a DNA test result going against him. He would be ready for any unfathomable compromise to avoid those years in confinement.
Will this change anything on the ground? Will people stop sympathizing with him? Will they stop casting aspersions on the character of the girl? Will they not vote for him? I believe BJP and Babush both know the answers very well. That’s the reason BJP wants to take Babush out of equation by means other than an election. The same with Babush. He would love to strike back at the BJP with everything in his arsenal and his arithmetic of votes would remain intact. It wouldn’t change in spite of the above matters. We the people have changed parameters of voting long time ago. And they very well know it.
Pramod Acharya is Editor, Prudent Media
