Much against the confidence exuded by the Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress of securing the magical figure of 21, the exit polls released on Monday have indicated that Goa is headed towards a hung Assembly with both parties barely a few seats apart. Overall, the surveys have given the Congress-Goa Forward alliance a slight edge, but by no means are BJP out of the game. With Congress emerging as top contenders, the question that emerges is whether the party is better prepared this time to deal with the situation. Or, whether the indecisiveness over leadership seen in 2017 is going to haunt it once again. And finally, whether BJP will have the last laugh.
These and many other questions surface as the Congress leadership is consistently undergoing strategy talks, moving up and down Delhi engaging the high command, repeatedly stating that it will announce the Congress Legislature Party leader within minutes of results, and deciding not to send candidates to counting centres for the fear of being poached.
On paper, Congress appears to be preparing for every eventuality. However, there are grey areas that throw in an element of doubt over the party's ability to put it beyond the reach of the BJP. What Congress is perhaps not considering is the most urgent and primary need to accommodate all the anti-BJP forces to checkmate the BJP, which could be inches away from striking distance.
Congress on the contrary appears to be more worried about poaching, which in fact, should not be an immediate worry because an instant two-thirds exodus doesn’t appear to be practicality. The party may be exuding confidence in getting the majority, but it is still reluctant to project a chief ministerial face for the fear of turning away likely post-poll alliance partners who are averse to leaders in the Congress. The hesitancy or delay in projecting a CLP president indicates that Congress wants to see the numbers stacked in favour before making a declaration, knowing well that a higher score could make the job easier.
However, the hurry in going for the kill could prove suicidal this time since smaller groups have an extra bargaining chip with the BJP waiting at the other end. Even though Congress is seen as the favourite, the task of government formation and providing stability would be challenging if Congress fails to bring together all non-BJP forces. For the sake of stability, it will have to go out of its way, do a delicate balancing act and accommodate all supporting players rather than showing upmanship.
In a scattered verdict, parties with 2 or 3 winners along with Independents could make the difference finally. Congress has to factor in the overall situation rather than merely looking at touching the magic figure of 21 because the joy of government-formation is such a fragile situation could be short-lived. The BJP is not going to give a walk-over, and even if they don’t have the numbers, Congress cannot write them off.
