The swiftness with which Chief Minister Laxmikant
Parsekar sacked Sudin and Deepak Dhavalikar may
have shocked political watchers in the State. But
then, when one targets the chief minister, one has
to bear the consequences. The first to fire a salvo at
Parsekar was Deepak, which was tolerated because the BJP
knows that in the MGP, Sudin calls the shots. So when he
openly stated that the MGP would not consider an alliance as
long as Parsekar is chief minister, the BJP was left with two
options, change the chief minister or defend him. The choice
was obvious and the party not only defended him, but sent a
very strong message to the Dhavalikar brothers that the senior
partner can and will throw the junior out if relations are not
cordial. Had the BJP to dilly-dally, the party and the chief minister
would have come across as weak and desperate for an
alliance with the MGP.
The BJP and the MGP are like two mace-armed wrestlers
circling each other. There is a lot
of shouting and screaming, but no
real effort to finish the match. Actually,
this is just the beginning. Nobody
is going to be severely hurt,
not now. It’s about one wrestler
measuring up the other. It’s about
each one hoping the other will back
down so that both can shake hands
and retire to the nearest dabha for a
glass of lassi. But one wild swing of the mace by the chief minister
appears to have connected and the MGP is reeling.
Does the sacking signal the end of the alliance? Maybe. Then
again, maybe not. Elections are yet to be announced and there
is still time for the two to disarm and sit down for that glass of
lassi and a bhai-bhai chat. The question is how far is the BJP
likely to go to accommodate its belligerent junior partner? Can
it accomplish this without compromising its own political future?
The BJP has totally eclipsed the MGP, but the lion continues
to wag its tail and now wants to grow bigger. This poses an
existential threat to the BJP.
The BJP must remember that this isn’t 2012. Then there was
a decisive wave against the Congress. Now, the government
faces an anti-incumbency factor, which is quite large, but not
yet a threat, thanks to a divided opposition. The Goa Suraksha
Manch, which is yet to be tested in electoral politics is a complication
that the BJP could do without. The MGP, on the other
hand, sees an opportunity in the GSM.
Should the BJP and the MGP go their separate ways, Goa
could head for a hung assembly with post-poll alliances that
could result in a weak government. Goa could be staring down
the barrel of instability and we all know how disastrous that
could be for the State.
