Strangely, here is a Supreme Court verdict which has seen both BJP and Congress claiming victories. The apex court has upheld the Speaker’s decision to disqualify 17 Congress & JDS MLAs who defected to the BJP in Karnataka. The bench has also ruled that the Speaker is not empowered to disqualify the MLAs till the end of the 15th Karnataka Assembly in 2023. This means that the decks are cleared for them to contest the crucial December 5 bypoll.
The verdict gives a new lease of life to the defectors, but can they win over the electorate will be the million-dollar question in the bypoll? The Congress takes solace from the fact that their argument of BJP using unconstitutional means to attain a majority stands vindicated. On the flip side, the saffron party smells victory, now that the court has allowed the defectors to contest elections.
However, for the BJP, there are more reasons to worry. The party will now be obliged to accommodate the defectors and field them in the bypoll to honour its promises, unless if the deals were outside the scope of political commitments. Add to this the baggage of a blemished track record that defectors will carry giving the opposition enough ammunition to fire on the mortality factor.
In a strong political scenario where BJP has its grass-root cadre and leaders in the 15 constituencies going to bypoll, the party will have a tough task of doing a fine balancing act. Pacifying imminent resentment within party ranks and also galvanizing support for the ‘newcomers’ will be a major challenge.
Interestingly, in Goa, BJP will face a similar paradox when it goes to polls in 2022. Accommodating at least some from the 10-member Congress breakaway group will be the biggest headache for the BJP in areas where the party has a well-established cadre and leadership in place.
Another worry in Karnataka is that there are possibilities of disgruntled leaders in 15 constituencies switching allegiances and joining hands with the Congress or JDU. If we may recall, party-hopping has been the recent trend and was witnessed in the May bypoll in Goa when senior leaders, including BJP leader from Mapusa Sudhir Kandolkar, switched sides after being denied the ticket by his party.
The question remains is whether the electorate is going to accept candidates who have violated the mandate. In Goa, the BJP triumphed at the May bypoll in contests which went down the wire. Against such a fluid situation, political experiments are bound to be fraught with risks and candidates cannot take victories for granted.
The high-pitched Karnataka bypoll will hold the key for BJP government stability with Congress and JDU closely lurking in the background. This will be a litmus test for the defecting MLAs and the mandate will be over their acceptability.
