With substantial portions of the budget speech being delivered in Hindi, the tone and tenor of the Arun Jaitley’s budget clearly indicated that it is making a last gasp effort to reach out to rural India, with the farmer being the key player, ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The government’s plan to give a linguistic spin to the budget speech is primarily to touch the rural constituencies which have been predominately Hindi-speaking people where the party is clearly feeling signs of distress.
Besides the agriculture boost, the government also plans to launch what it claims as world’s largest state-funded insurance programme -- the National Health Protection Scheme. Health insurance worth Rs 5 lakh annually to 100 million families is on the cards. Earlier, the government provided Rs 30,000 as insurance to underprivileged families.
The BJP is facing eight State elections this year, besides the Lok Sabha polls early in 2019. The party has been on shaky ground in some states, including the recently concluded Gujarat assembly elections, the stronghold of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. There are clear indications that the support for the Modi-led alliance from farmers and traders has been on the wane and there have been serious worries over unemployment. This is where Modi government’s budget has set its eyes on.
Jaitley has promised better price realisation for agricultural products besides providing more livelihood opportunities to farmers, much in line with the government’s aim of doubling farm incomes by 2022. Government has decided to keep Minimum Support Price for the all unannounced crops of kharif at least at one and half times of their production cost, much in line with the party manifesto where it was stated that the farmers should realise at least 50% more than the cost of their produce. Nothing much has been achieved on that count and it looks highly improbable at this stage that the farmers will be at an advantage this time around. Looking at only the support price will not help and it appears to be a Herculean task to achieve what the government has promised. Government’s arguments on the support are not backed by mechanisms for implementation and dispensation of MSP. Also, the focus this time, like every year, has been on providing easy loans, but the critical question on how the farmer is going to repay remains a million dollar one.
Jaitley was seen at his poetic best in his budget speech. “You merge yourselves in the void and disappear, and let New India arise in your place,” he said while concluding his speech, quoting an Indian saint. “Let her arise -- out of the peasants’ cottage, grasping the plough; out of the huts of the fisherman, the cobbler, and the sweeper. Let her spring from the grocer’s shop, from beside the oven of the fritter-seller. Let her emanate from the factory, from marts, and from markets. Let her emerge from groves and forests, from hills and mountains.” It remains to be seen how his poetry turns fortunes. Allocations in the past haven’t helped the cause of farmers. Grand promises in the budget like the healthcare scheme will need big money and avenues to mobilize such finances appear uncertain at this point in time. It only remains to be seen how far this budget can deliver.
