India faces its first official drought since 2009, as foodprice inflation is already running higher than 10 percent.
Worse still, unlike 2009, when the economy was growing at ahealthy 8.5 percent clip, growth is down to 6.5 percent (or lower). So a plungein consumption by India's rural population -- who make up two-thirds of thetotal -- will be especially painful.
As GlobalPost reported in June, the US drought isexacerbating India's worries. Meanwhile, corruption and incompetence means thatfood continues to rot in government warehouses, even as prices soar and peoplestarve, as GlobalPost wrote in July.
That's only part of the reason this year's drought could beworse than 2009.
"Unlike FY10, when the economy grew at 8.4% despite thedrought, this time GDP growth won’t have much to show," a national weeklywrote.
"Growth had already slowed to 6.5% in FY12 andeconomists fear the drought could see growth slowing to 5.8% in FY13. Thoughthe Centre has planned to increase the number of days of assured income underNREGA to safeguard rural income, can it contain food inflation? Primary foodinflation surged from 8.7% in April 2009 to 21% by March 2010.
