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Indian stock markets are entering an important week as investors keep a close watch on quarterly earnings, rising tensions in West Asia, movements in crude oil prices and the progress of the monsoon. Global market trends and institutional investor activity are also expected to influence trading.
Although uncertainty remains, benchmark indices ended last week on a positive note. The Sensex and Nifty both rose more than 1 per cent on Friday, extending gains for a second consecutive session. At the same time, India VIX, which measures market volatility, fell by another 8 per cent to 12.33, indicating lower levels of investor anxiety.
Q1 earnings in focus
The June quarter earnings season gathers momentum this week, with 143 companies scheduled to announce their financial results.
Investors will closely track the performance and outlook of major companies, including Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Wipro and HCL Technologies. Management commentary and brokerage reports are expected to provide important signals about business conditions and future growth.
Crude oil remains a concern
Crude oil prices are likely to remain under close watch as tensions between the United States and Iran continue to escalate.
Brent crude rose more than 5 per cent last week, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained over 4 per cent after fresh military action involving the two countries. Rising oil prices are a concern for India, as they can increase import costs, fuel inflation and affect corporate earnings.
Iran has accused the United States of violating the ceasefire after Washington withdrew a licence allowing the sale of Iranian crude. The latest conflict followed attacks on commercial vessels near Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which triggered US strikes on Iranian targets. Iran later responded by targeting US military bases in the Gulf region.
Institutional investors remain supportive
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) returned as net buyers last week, purchasing shares worth around Rs 4,670 crore, according to provisional exchange data.
Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also continued buying, investing approximately Rs 8,280 crore.
Mutual fund investments through Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) also strengthened. SIP contributions increased to a three-month high of Rs 31,780 crore in June 2026, up 2.7 per cent from May and 16.5 per cent higher than the same month last year.
Market experts believe institutional investment will continue to depend on global developments, particularly crude oil prices and any progress in peace efforts between the US and Iran.
Global markets under watch
Global market performance will also influence investor sentiment.
Technology and artificial intelligence stocks have recently come under pressure after a strong rally, prompting investors to reassess high levels of spending in the sector. Any significant correction in US or Asian markets could affect Indian equities as well.
Despite these concerns, major Asian markets ended last week higher. South Korea’s Kospi, Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng all recorded gains. Wall Street also finished in positive territory, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average closing higher.
Monsoon progress important
The progress of the southwest monsoon will remain another important factor for investors. A good monsoon is expected to improve farm incomes, strengthen rural demand and support agricultural production. This could benefit sectors such as fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), automobiles and other businesses that rely heavily on rural consumption.
Technical outlook
According to market analysts, the Nifty continues to trade within a narrow range, with technical indicators showing no clear trend. The 24,500-24,550 zone is expected to act as a major resistance level, while support is seen around 23,900-23,950. A move above or below these levels could determine the market’s next direction. While the benchmark indices remain range-bound, the broader market has continued to outperform. The Nifty Midcap 100 touched a fresh record high last week, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 is close to reaching a new all-time high. Analysts believe mid-cap and small-cap stocks could continue to perform better than the benchmark indices in the near term.
