IMD Goa scientist Nahush Kulkarni said model guidance indicates favourable rainfall over the State during the first 10 days of the month, after which a week-long deficient phase is likely to set in.
“Currently we are experiencing excess rainfall. This will continue till July 10. It would be normal rainfall... The week-two is likely to be deficit,” he said, speaking to The Goan.
As per the IMD’s extended-range forecast, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is likely across Konkan and Goa from July 1 to July 7. Isolated heavy rainfall has been forecast between July 1 and July 5, while isolated very heavy rainfall is likely on July 6 and 7.
The IMD has further forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall at many places, with extremely heavy rainfall at isolated locations across Konkan and Goa till July 5.
The weather activity is being driven by strong southwesterly winds over the Arabian Sea. The IMD has also warned of squally weather along and off the Gujarat, Konkan, Goa and Karnataka coasts, as well as adjoining parts of the east-central and northeast Arabian Sea, till July 6.
The renewed monsoon activity follows a significant improvement in rainfall during the final week of June. Between June 25 and July 1, South Goa received 363.5 mm of rainfall against the normal 238.4 mm, recording an excess of 52 per cent, while North Goa registered near-normal rainfall during the same period.
For the monsoon season up to July 1, however, the State remained rainfall deficient. South Goa received 751.9 mm against a normal of 934.2 mm, a deficit of 20 per cent, while North Goa recorded 555.4 mm against the normal 972.1 mm, leaving it with a 43 per cent shortfall.
“The ongoing spell of widespread rainfall is expected to substantially narrow the seasonal deficit, although the extent of recovery will depend on the distribution and intensity of rainfall over the next several days before the anticipated weakening of monsoon activity during the second week of July,” an official said.
Independent weather models also indicate that rainy conditions are likely to persist till around July 10, with heavy rain expected during the first half of the period before rainfall gradually eases thereafter.
With heavy to extremely heavy rainfall forecast over the coming days, the IMD has advised remaining alert for waterlogging, rising river levels and localised flooding in vulnerable areas across the State.
