PANAJI
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday forecast a below-normal southwest monsoon for 2026, with seasonal rainfall across the country likely to be around 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
According to the first-stage long-range forecast issued by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the June to September monsoon season is most likely to remain in the below-normal category (90-95 per cent of LPA), with a model error margin of +/- 5 per cent. Officials said evolving climatic conditions, including a possible transition towards El Niño during the monsoon months, could influence rainfall distribution.
According to the IMD, climate models indicate that El Nino conditions are likely to emerge around the month of June.
Currently, weak La Nina conditions are transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific.
The IMD noted that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail and may turn positive towards the latter half of the monsoon season, while northern hemisphere snow cover has remained slightly below normal, both factors that can impact monsoon performance.
The department will issue an updated forecast by the end of May, along with region-wise projections.
The latest outlook comes in contrast to last year, when the IMD had forecast an above-normal southwest monsoon pan-India, projecting seasonal rainfall at 105 per cent of the LPA.
Goa eventually recorded near-normal rainfall, with the State receiving 104 per cent of the LPA during the June-September season.
