If you can predict how well the rains will be, you’ll be able to prepare better for agriculture which in turn would create better economy. Better economy means better development, which in turn means better jobs therefore less law and order problems. And if you know there is going to be a less rainfall period, you’ll need to prepare in advance and keep reservoir.”
Rajeev Nigam,
Assistant Director, NIO
'Study of microfossils can predict climatic patterns'
Sessions to focus on role of climate in shaping ancient civilizations
THE GOAN NETWORK
PANAJI
Climate change and global warming was the talk at the Quaternary Climate: Recent findings and Future Challenges Conference inaugurated at the National Institute of Oceanography (NIO) on Thursday.
NIO assistant director Rajeev Nigam discussed the impact of microfossils like foraminifers and otoliths in predicting rainfall patterns and the concept of global warming and climate change.
Nigam said that while most rainfall predictions were based on patterns over the last 100 years, his is a different approach.
“Meteorology scientists try to predict climate but they go wrong sometimes. It’s not that they are wrong in their calculations but when you’re working with limited data, the chances of going wrong are high. Written records data maybe to about 100 years ago, but you need a bigger data which is why we go to the sea. Every year there is sediment being deposited. They contain fossils and they give you a time of when they were living and the sort of climate they lived in,” he said, adding that it is the study of these microfossils that can predict climatic patterns.
He also predicts that unlike in the past, Lothal in Gujarat where sufficient time was available for civilizations to shift base, the same may not be possible today.
“One may not even get the change to go for mitigation this time around. Everyone thinks sea level is rising because of anthropologic changes but if you want to correctly access the changes, you need to know what happened in the past,” said Nigam.
The conference that brings together scientists from around the country will focus on reconstructing quaternary climate, a time that comprises of the Pleistocene and Holocene periods. Research will focus on understanding the effect of anthropogenic changes on earth’s climate using terrestrial and marine archives.
Sessions to be held on Friday and Saturday will also look at the role of climatic change in shaping ancient civilizations.
Based on decadal data and not an annual one, Nigam also said we were in fact passing through a good monsoon season. “It is a 77-year cycle. We are actually going through good monsoon years. We had begun in 1985 when the rainfall was poor and had predicted it will change and it has gone according to our predictions,” he said.
Using data collected during his works, Nigam has now said it will take another 35 years before a severe drop in the amount of rainfall. The cycle is related to the sun that expands and contracts based on which the climate of earth is regulated, he adds saying climate is nothing but an energy balance. The values are crucial, he said, in predicting and preparing for the future.
“If you can predict how well the rains will be, you’ll be able to prepare better for agriculture which in turn would create better economy. Better economy means better development, which in turn means better jobs therefore less law and order problems. And if you know there is going to be a less rainfall period, you’ll need to prepare in advance and keep reservoir,” he said.
