PANAJI
Forty-eight hours after the polls to Goa Assembly, the Congress camp led by president Luizinho Faleiro declared that they are confident of winning 23 seats. However, a more comprehensive study conducted by the party shows the Congress winning much less.
As per the latest internal projections offered by the rank and file of Congress over the week after the polls, Congress is confident of clinching 12 seats quite comfortably whereas the party is bracing for a tough fight in 14 constituencies.
Several partymen also confided that although the party is expecting to be the single largest party on March 11, it has resigned to its fate in at least 12 other constituencies.
The party is also banking on the victory of independent candidate Rohan Khaunte in Porvorim and United Goans Party supremo Babush Monserrate in Panaji, both backed by Congress.
In the list of 12 constituencies which the Congress insiders claim will be a walkover for the party are Mandrem, Tivim, St Andre, Ponda, Velim and Sanguem along with the present Congress-represented St Cruz, Poriem, Valpoi, Margao, Curtorim and Quepem.
Internal analysis, however, expects a tough fight from rival BJP in Taleigao. The constituency is presently represented by Congress MLA Jennifer Monserrate and is the sole segment where Congress is expecting a threat to its sitting MLA.
Candidates and top leaders have singled out 14 constituencies as the tricky ones. While Congress believes that it has an upper hand in four of these, the remainder of 10 segments -- Pernem, Siolim, Saligao, Mayem, Sankhali, Mormugao, Cortalim, Cuncolim, Calangute and Canacona -- could sway within a narrow margin towards either of the contenders. These four constituencies include Taleigao, Shiroda, Nuvem and Navelim.
Several huddles later, the party has admitted its weak position in 12 constituencies of Bicholim, Mapusa, Aldona, Cumbarjua, Priol, Marcaim, Dabolim, Vasco, Fatorda, Benaulim, Curchorem and Sanvordem.
Congress is expecting straight fights between BJP and Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party with Goa Suraksha Manch in Curchorem and Sanvordem.
Interestingly, the grand old party is unsure of the fate of its candidates in the constituencies where the nascent Goa Forward has also fielded its candidates. However, several grass-root Congressmen are of the opinion that GFP’s Siolim candidate Vinod Palienkar and Saligao candidate Jayesh Salgaonkar stand a good chance of defeating the sitting BJP MLAs whereas Vijai Sardessai might manage a narrow victory to retain Fatorda. That said, the decision of a possible post-poll understanding continues to be under tight wraps.
Congress has also begun to do the math for Salcete and Bardez. Traditionally a fortress of Congress, the party is expecting at least four to five seats out of the eight in Salcete. Cuncolim is proving to be a tough call with the presence of independent candidate Joaquim Alemao.
Navelim, where Congress president Faleiro is in the fray, has a total of four minority candidates which is expected to split the votes unpredictably.
In Bardez, Congress appears to be banking heavily on GFP and independent candidate Rohan to upset the BJP, especially some ministers from BJP cabinet.
In constituencies such as Pernem and Sankhali, a triangular fight has been predicted between BJP, Congress and MGP-GSM.
