The Trinamool Congress’ withdrawal of support may reduce theUPA government to a minority but that doesn’t pose any threat to it so long asthe Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party continue their outside support,thereby keeping the numbers well above the half-way mark of 272. Both theseparties have their own reasons to keep the UPA afloat for now and they havesaid so. Until the political scenario changes drastically, it is business asusual.
Nor does the withdrawal reduce the UPA’s manoeuvreability interms of legislative or administrative decision making in any way. TheTrinamool Congress has been more of an impediment, by stalling whatever measurethe union government proposed to take to revive the economy “ FDI inmulti-brand retail and aviation, reforms in land acquisition process,rationalization of railway fares or fuel price hike etc. In that sense, theseverance of ties presents an opportunity by way of dissolution of internalresistance.
That said, what does the Trinamool Congress gain by takingsuch a step? That is not very clear, nor does it need to be. Mamata Banerjee,the Trinamool Congress chief, has no reputation of being rational orreasonable. She is better known for unpredictability and brink(wo)manship. Sheloves the thrill of living on the edge, constantly rewriting her relationships.Her independent journey began in 1998 when she broke her two-decade-longassociation with the Congress to launch the Trinamool Congress. The very nextyear, she joined the BJP-led coalition and became the railway minister in theNDA regime. A year later, in 2001, she broke away after the Tehelka’s expose onarms deals surfaced; joined hands with the Congress and fought the West Bengalelections with the Congress. In 2004, she broke away again and joined back theNDA.
Just before the 2009 general elections, she went back to theCongress again and became the railway minister in the Congress-led UPAgovernment. She fought the West Bengal elections of 2011 with the Congress.Now, three years down the line, she has broken free. Will it be a surprise ifshe returns to the UPA fold some months from now? Hardly, at all.
She has withdrawn support to the UPA saying that it isn’tpossible for her to support the “anti-people decisions” of the union government“FDI in multi-brand retail, aviation and media; diesel price hike; capping onthe number of subsidized LPG cylinders etc. But in the past, every time she wasseen stalling FDI in retail and aviation, objecting to the fuel price hike andhike in railway fares or opposing the candidature of Pranab Mukherjee as thepresidential candidate, Mamata Banerjee was found negotiating for a financialpackage with the union government.
She said she needed additional funds because thethree-decade-old Left Front rule had left West Bengal bankrupt. But what didshe do with whatever fund was available? She launched a drive to paint allpublic buildings of Kolkata blue. More recently, she was accused of divertingmoney for education to celebrating Teachers’ Day. On the other hand, she hasdubbed anyone questioning or criticising her policies as “Maoist” and puthim/her in jail. Rape cases have been dismissed as “conspiracy” against her.These are hardly “pro-people”.
The UPA’ s journey from now onwards becomes very interestingthough. Not only the opposition parties like the BJP and Left Front, evenallies like the DMK and Samajwadi Party are unhappy with the latest clutch ofreform measures the union government has taken. They want these to be rolledback. The DMK would be joining the opposition-sponsored bandh too. Besides, theBJP will be launching a country-wide agitation, taking the mega scams like coalblock allocation to the people. The coal scam washed out the monsoon session ofparliament, paralyzing legislative works. Who knows what will be the fate ofthe winter session?
In fact, the UPA’s fate would depend more on how these campaignspan out in the next few months. As of now, it is safe. Nobody wants generalelections now. The SP (with 22 members in parliament) says it wants to keep theBJP at bay and hence won’t destabilize the government. The BSP (21) says itlost UP elections six months ago and need more time for the anti-incumbency toset in for its rival, the SP. Their outside support, and also that of RJD (4),JD(S) (3) and others, takes the number on the side of UPA to at least 301 “well past the half-way mark of 272.
