PRABHAKAR TIMBLE
The final outcome of the elections to the state assemblies of Haryana and Maharashtra coming just after the big win of the BJP and the rout of the opposition at the 2019 parliamentary elections was out of the blue for the BJP as well as for the other parties. After the devastation of the non-NDA political parties, the opposition was supposed to be all at sea and BJP all in command at the polls in both the States. Finally, the BJP managed to form the government in Haryana offering the post of Deputy Chief Minister to Dushyant Chautala of the nascent Jannayak Janata Party (JJP). Though the single largest party in Maharashtra, the BJP is locked in manoeuvrings and struggling to hoist the saffron flag on the State Secretariat. The arm-twisting activities and power bargaining continue for over a week. Speculations are rife with possibilities of a non-BJP government though it is equally true that BJP will leave no stone unturned to nip in the bud any such formation. In short, the BJP is up and winning in formation of governments but down and losing in the electoral game. The Congress and opposition parties are down and, yet, looking up on the recovery path of the electoral cycle.
It was the general view that Modi’s BJP had almost succeeded in ensuring a full eclipse of the idea of secular India through its divisive majoritarian strategy. The results in the two states saw an unexpected arrest of the BJP and an uncalculated sweet surprise to the battered and bruised political opposition. It is this gap between expectation and reality that measures the shock of both. The results brought smiles on the faces of public intellectuals espousing the cause of secular, inclusive and liberal India. A little cheer to those who brave the brunt of the ‘Hindutva’ brigade. Definitely, it was a cool breeze of relief to the 55 per cent of India’s voters who stood with the opposition in the recently concluded parliamentary elections. BJP garnered 37.4 per cent and the NDA as a whole received 45 per cent of the vote in these national elections.
The media and more particularly the TV repeated and reinforced the fable of Modi and Amit Shah. The exit polls reassured that the path of the BJP sweep is sealed. Even otherwise, the Congress party did not show any visible intention of running the race to win. Despite this, the government formation was within the reachable area of anybody in Haryana. It was the JJP pulley that pulled the BJP to Raj Bhavan. In Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena has gathered flesh to dictate terms to BJP which are hard to accept. The opposition has scored decent numbers to act as a countervailing power and is in position to offset the balance. The darling of the Marathi media, Sharad Pawar who is described as the ‘Maratha strongman’ can put the weight on any side. Defection, breaking away and forming new partnerships without batting an eyelid is the known past of this strongman. All the leaders are on tenterhooks as political loyalties are highly unpredictable.
Whatever said and done, it would finally be a BJP-led government. Though reduced to a minority, it formed the government in Goa (2017) and later worked to engineer merger of two political parties taking their tally from 13 to 27 in the 40-member assembly. The party was quick and agile to form the government in North-East. It regained power in Karnataka through the most despicable means and an unpardonable drama. BJP is armed for any costs. It must be admitted that politics is not a clean game but no party is emerging as uncouth and unclean as the BJP of today. BJP is prepared for any sacrifices. The moment they get into power, the next moment they will start working for reducing the hold of the alliance partners. It could be that this writing of caution is forcing the Shiv Sena to do real hard bargaining for lucrative spoils of office.
Those captivated with majoritarian pride politics would appreciate the goings-on in Maharashtra as smart politics of the BJP and the Shiv Sena. The moment it turns Shiv Sena tagged to NCP and Congress, it is painted as bad and anti-national politics. In a bid to dump the Shiv Sena, if the BJP establishes a live-in relationship with NCP, it would be paraded as a masterstroke to checkmate the regional outfit.
What’s going on in the country today is not democratic politics for economic and political freedom. It is largely politics of religion and majoritarian fanaticism. Wins in this area are accompanied by losses in freedom of choice and temper of science. In communal politics, fanatical leaders win elections but the majority community loses freedoms. People are losing social and economic enrichment to win pride and supremacy of caste and religion.
These state elections were preceded by noticeable misuse of governmental power on political opponents. Further, top and winnable politicians from opposition crossed over to the BJP on the eve of polls. However, instead of wining to consolidate the BJP position, most of these leaders lost. Some argue that the shift of leaders has not shifted the voters. The plausible reason could be that voters could not recover from the shock and get realigned in such a short period. At the same time, it is bound to demotivate the BJP loyal brand of workers who also air ambitions. Their political aspirations were sucked and stolen by the new entrants. The entire exercise orchestrated for a thumping win resulted in a thrashing loss.
Has the BJP election horse reached its plateau? Is the no bars strategy to win backfiring? Will such turn enthuse the wounded opposition and put the BJP on guard? The voters of the two states have raised these questions and generated options.
