Iraqi and Kurdish Peshmerga forces have begun a decisive battle to take Mosul from ISIS forces. Early reports indicate that the advance has been quicker than expected and villages surrounding the city have been overrun. Nearly 100,000 troops, which also include Sunni tribal fighters and Shiite militia are part of the two-pronged advance, coordinated by the US military which has several of its personnel on the ground. British military personnel are also part of the forces which are now within six miles of the city. The attack is being spearheaded by Iraqi special forces which have been trained by the US military.
Mosul is the last stronghold of ISIS in Iraq and its fall would be huge blow to the ruthless organization which attempted to impose its brand of militant Islam. It was here that the leader of ISIS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared formation of the caliphate that would rule in the years to come. There are reports that he is still hiding in the city while other say he has already fled. The city is strategically important as it is located on the trade route to Syria and Turkey. It also has significant oil fields in its vicinity and its capture would deny ISIS of oil revenue it earns from sales in the black market. Securing this city would bolster Iraq’s revenue and boost its economy.
In 2014 when Mosul was captured in a lightning strike by ISIS fighters it had a population of around two million. This has now dwindled to around one million. Many have fled and many have been either killed, reduced to slaves of simply forced out. The civilian population is now caught in the middle of an all-important battle. If they stay back they run the risk of being killed and if they try to escape there is no guarantee that they would be looked after by the advancing forces. No significant measures have been taken to ensure their well-being and human rights groups have warned of a huge humanitarian problem waiting to explode as the war gets underway.
There are reports that ISIS leaders have fled Mosul leaving its defences to foreign fighters who roughly number around 5,000. But the fight is expected to be long and deadly. Urban warfare is never easy especially because of the presence of large civilian populations. However, there is encouraging news of locals organizing themselves to create a resistance within the city.
Winning the war is only half the problem. Putting a city of various ethnic groups together, rebuilding infrastructure and effectively governing it is a challenge for Baghdad and the international community. Part of the reason why ISIS was able to overrun the city was because local security forces, which were disenchanted with the sectarian approach of the previous government, simply went over to the other side. There is a level of uncertainty that hangs over post-war Mosul but the need to rid it of the ISIS is even greater.
