The government leadership crisis is running its last lap and all the action has now shifted to Delhi. The ball is now in Amit Shah’s darbar where key coalition partners will once and for all thrash the key issue of who is their acceptable face to don the crown of chief minister. Manohar Parrikar’s health condition has now been put on the back-burner as the BJP leadership gears up for life ahead. This could be the toughest challenge for the BJP leadership given the fact that the few contenders in the race come with their own baggage. And with the government still not too close for comfort, the concerns of the allies cannot be ignored, at least at this stage.
Health Minister Vishwajit Rane, the chief architect of the surgical strike on Congress has emerged one of the Manohar Parrikar’s successors. However, the BJP cadre is not too pleased with his candidature despite the fact that Rane has found certain acceptability within the allies. Next on the list is Goa Forward’s choice and BJP State President Vinay Tendulkar, a name which is still a suspect within the BJP core committee. The third choice is none other than Union Minister Shripad Naik, who some time back was screened by the leadership for the top post. However, Naik doesn’t find favour with the allies, especially Goa Forward and MGP. This forms a very complicated maze and Shah will have to do some smart politicking to find a consensus candidate, a job which he has handled with perfection so far.
Back home, although the numbers between the BJP and Congress are evenly balanced with the saffron brigade enjoying the support of allies, a closer scrutiny reveals that the equation still remains delicately balanced. With the resignations of Subhash Shirodkar and Dayanand Sopte, the strength of the House has gone down to 38 from the original 40. In this case the majority mark will now be 20. On paper, the BJP boasts of 14 and with the support of 3 MLAs each from Goa Forward, MGP and Independents, it takes the coalition count to 23. However, in an eventuality of a replacement to chief minister Manohar Parrikar, the floor test would be a tightrope walk for BJP.
With Parrikar’s health condition remaining critical and Pandurang Madkaikar still hospitalized, the numbers will be effectively reduced to 21. The onus will be on an ailing Francis D’Souza who is frequently in and out of the State for treatment. Mind you, D’Souza has lately not been a happy man going by his outbursts on being dropped from the cabinet and neither is Sanguem MLA Prasad Goankar who has been ignored in the recent cabinet reshuffle. The equation is compounded with the fact that the Speaker exercises his vote only in case of a tie. With a wafer-thin margin, the BJP-led government will be skating on thin ice and will be heavily dependent on the Independents.
From keeping everyone happy and retaining their
numbers to zeroing down on a consensus chief ministerial leader, the BJP leadership in Delhi has a herculean task
cut out.
