The D-day has finally arrived and the entire attention of the State is focused on the much-awaited Assembly election results and the formation of a new government. Even as the State election machinery is geared up for the count, there is palpable anxiety and uncertainty over what is considered to be one of the fiercest and tightly contested elections. The euphoria and the confidence in the Congress camp suggest that the party is rearing to go, having reiterated a dozen times that the mistakes of 2017 will not be repeated, and ensuring that its candidates are away and secured against any poaching attempts.
For starters, a slender edge is enough for either Congress or the BJP to make moves for government formation because there are options available for both parties. Sudin Dhavalikar is emerging as the kingmaker, if not the king himself, given the presumption that MGP is set to garner 4-5 seats, keeping the TMC tally aside. Sudin’s support however comes at a price because there are high probabilities of a close race at the top where MGP’s role could be crucial for anyone trying to take a shot at power. Keeping out Sudin & Co could be a difficult proposition for Congress because it will then have to depend on AAP and the Independents.
Should MGP get anything beyond five seats, Sudin will have better bargaining power in whichever side he chooses to go. For now, he may have refused to align with the BJP and the leadership of Pramod Sawant, but in a position of strength, the veteran MGP leader could capitalize on the situation and make a conditional offer to both BJP and Congress.
While the attention will be on the top finisher, the focus will also be on the BJP and how it deals with the situation and remains relevant. For now, pulling in a few Independents and convincing the MGP is the only visible option at hand. But BJP is known for playing hardball, and understandably won’t concede easily, plus there would be fence-sitters willing to jump in instead of painfully sitting out for five long years. This is where the politics is going to get murky because sworn enemies could turn friends in a matter of minutes for the sake of power, and all the electoral fire seen in campaigns, and the vows in churches, temples, and the assurances to voters could vanish into the blue in a matter of minutes. That’s for the lust of power.
Last but certainly not least, much would depend on the Governor in a situation where the numbers are stacked up closely. The Governor who stands as a constitutional umpire is duty-bound to look for a party or an alliance that commands a clear majority to form a government. This is where he is required to go by the letter and spirit of democracy. The ghastly memories of 2017 continue to haunt the State. It is to be seen whether this result will wipe away those memories, and whether the mandate of the people will get the sanctity it deserves in politically infamous Goa.
