The exit polls released on Monday may have given a split decision on the single largest party with Congress and BJP sharing the top honours, but in doing so, it has brought about a paradigm shift in the thinking of party leaders. What is significant is that the surveys have triggered a change in an otherwise calm political landscape. Until yesterday, parties were flexing muscle and talking about forming governments independently. The BJP especially has shown unfounded overconfidence despite a clear wave against it with Chief Minister Pramod Sawant and Party President Sadanand Tanavade coining a new slogan -- 22 in 22 (the year 2022).
Sawant and Tanavade have repeated time and again that the BJP will not look at a post-poll alliance with any party and would form the government on its strength. Post exit polls, Sawant has dashed off to New Delhi and set up an impromptu meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The BJP is now trying to woo the MGP as part of a government-formation plan. The exit poll surveys have pricked the bubble of overconfidence of the BJP and the Congress, and both are now desperately trying to explore partnering options.
Both Congress and BJP have realised that parties like MGP, TMC and AAP along with Independents could play a decisive role in the number game. MGP leads the pack here against the backdrop of exit poll prediction that the party could garner more than four seats. The compatibility issue will be the key here, because, if MGP declines the BJP and goes the Congress way, the saffron party will find it extremely difficult to engineer majority numbers to overpower Congress, even if it had to rely on Independents. Difficult because the AAP or TMC coming to the rescue of the BJP appears to be an unlikely proposition given the background that they fought the election on an anti-BJP plank.
The BJP may get support from Laxmikant Parsekar, Utpal Parrikar and Chandrakant Shetye, but their wins would mean that the BJP tally would further dip leaving the party more ground to cover. The other prominent independents Aleixo Reginaldo Lourenco from Curtorim Constituency, Isidore Fernandes from Canacona and Antonio Vas from Cortalim have kept cards close to their chests giving broad indications that they would go with the government of the day.
The last 24 hours ahead of counting will be crucial and it is to be seen how much ground both Congress and BJP are going to cover. While the number game plays out on the political landscape, it is the party that has numbers that will have a huge advantage and should get the first shot at government formation. However, all said and done, the ball will be in the governor's court and it is to be seen how His Excellency handles this one, should the BJP try a repeat of 2017.
