With curtains set to come down on the fortnight-long hectic campaign for the South Goa seat going to the polls on May 7, the Congress seemed eyeing a 70,000-plus vote lead in its bastion Salcete to keep party candidate Captain Viriato Fernandes in good stead and pave way for the party to retain the seat.
Congress’ Lok Sabha poll calculations appear simple. The Party had lost the South Goa seat in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls despite candidate Reginaldo Lourenco garnering 30,000 vote lead in Salcete. Take note, the Congress later regained the seat in the 2019 election when candidate Francisco Sardinha led over the BJP in Salcete with 50,000 vote lead, indicating that a vote lead of 70,000 will keep the party in good stead.
For, much water has flown down the river Zuari in the last five years and Congress leaders know for sure that the 2024 polls is a different ball game compared to the 2019 election. With MGP supremo Ramkrishna Dhavalikar back in the BJP camp and the hinterland segments of South Goa Lok Sabha constituency now represented by a host of BJP Ministers and leaders, Congress leaders say only a massive vote lead in Salcete can help the party retain the seat and offset BJP’s gains in the hinterland.
The reasoning in the Congress appears clear. If Sardinha could wrest the South Goa seat from the BJP by a thin margin of 9,700-odd votes in 2019 despite the fact that Salcete had rallied strongly behind the party by giving Sardinha 50,000 vote lead, the party needs to garner 70,000-vote lead to offset a BJP surge in the remaining 12 Assembly segments, including the segments of Madkai and Sanvordem, BJP’s traditional strongholds.
Against this backdrop, Congress leaders in private say the INDIA Alliance bloc campaign in Salcete has enthused party’s traditional vote base, so much so the party expects the silent majority of voters to come out on polling day and cast their vote for Captain Viriato Fernandes.
In this respect, the INDIA Alliance bloc leaders are looking forward to the segments of Nuvem, Velim and Benaulim to come to the rescue of the Congress candidate, and not to mention the segments of Curtorim, Navelim and Cuncolim to keep the party flag flying high.
The BJP, on the other hand, is banking heavily on its traditional voters across Salcete in Margao, Fatorda, Navelim, Curtorim and Cuncolim, besides Velim to help reduce Congress’ vote lead in the taluka.
The party is also relying on Congress turncoats, Digambar Kamat in Margao and Minister Alexio Sequeira in Nuvem to upset Congress’ apple cart.
The BJP, however, is facing an acid test in Salcete “ can the party succeed in reducing the Congress’ overall lead in the minority stronghold to leave the opposition party stranded midway and pave the way for Pallavi Dempo to enter the Lok Sabha from South Goa?
