India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has dipped to 1.9 from the threshold of 2.1 (which is the replacement rate, or where births and deaths are equal). What this means is that the population will decrease in India...but only after about 25-30 yrs.
How does it work? Let us suppose that in a housing society there are 10 females in the child-bearing ages of 19-45 yrs. One of them is not married, and another one is incapable of bearing children. The remaining 8 will have to produce 21 children for the population to remain stable. But in India we are now producing only 19 children for every 10 females. Hence, the population will decline...but only after 25-30 yrs. Why? Because that is when the youngest female in a group of 10 females will turn 45 years.
The bad news is that the TFR in Goa is very low at 1.3. This should ring alarm bells in the small state. Most of the states in India are also below the replacement rate of 2.1. However, the BIMARU states (Bihar, MP, Rajasthan, and UP) are bucking the trend, with Bihar at 3.0 and UP at 2.35. So the population will continue to grow in the north. However, with all girls now receiving education in schools, we can expect the TFR in the BIMARU states to decrease eventually.
Robert Castellino, Calangute/Mumbai
