USA could have in one stroke stopped the invasion of Ukraine by asserting that Ukraine will not join NATO. It appears that Ukraine will not join NATO after all. China and Japan are the largest holders of US treasury bonds. Russia on the other hand has reduced its exposure by 85% and is aggressively buying gold as security hedge and together with China seems likely to be independent of USA bonds and dollar monopoly by floating new currency to displace prevalence of dollar in trade. In fact the Yen is on the top of prevailing dollar. Russia has legitimate concerns after being surrounded by hostile neighbours and having to divert attention on security aspects. Germany on the other hand has nearly finalized gas pipeline from Russia. It is a win-win situation for both “cheap, clean energy and economic spin-offs for Russia. As trust increases between the two, trade restrictions may ease and payment will be in their own currencies not necessarily in dollars. It is in USA’s interest not to lose Germany from its orbit. USA cannot propagate the idea of supporting democracy in Ukraine as the track record of that country is to suppress freedom through press and TV and hence the internal uprising. Russia interprets its direct invasion to aid the uprising and insurgency which has no international support. Ukraine has never supported India’s interest in any way and at any time in the past. On the contrary, Russia has been reliable support during most difficult wars. Wars have economic spin offs for all nations and cannot be confined to the warring nations alone. Do sanctions serve as deterrents? Russia has defied the threats of sanctions in its plans for full scale invasion committing breach of conventions and incurred international condemnations.
Nelson Lopes Chinchinim
