For analysts, Gujarat election result has never been lessthan political sudoku. Just as trends started coming in, intense debates couldbe heard on whether Narendra Modi would cross the magic figure of 117 seats ” afeat he achieved in 2007 assembly election. This figure is touted as thepsychological benchmark for Modi to cross his first hurdle for primeministerial ambition.
Is this the only important message of the election?
In the din of vacuity the critical underlying messages ofthis election are lost. Irrespective of the size of majority, Modi's victoryfor the third time would endow him with an aura of a charismatic mass leader inhis own right, and an alternative at the national level as well.
There is little doubt that Modi has won this election inspite of the Sangh Parivar. His bitterest rivals came from the Sangh stable andmost of them got tacit support from a section of RSS leadership. For instance,Keshubhai Patel found sympathetic quarters within the RSS and some of his coreloyalists belonged to the cadre. The implicit message of this election resulthas broken to smithereens the myth of the RSS muscle and its cadre, which BJPleaders used to fear.
Even in BJP-ruled states, the RSS has been calling theshots, with an exception of Gujarat. For the last five years, the RSSleadership, assisted by local VHP units and other affiliated organizations, hasbeen using all tricks in the book to upstage Modi. But the election resultsproved it beyond doubt that Modi is miles ahead in building up a parallelnetwork of cadres and outdo his rivals in making strategy.
But will Modi’s emergence lead to dissolution of the NDA? Asof now, barring JD(U) the existence of NDA is only a formality. There is littledoubt that Akali Dal and Shiv Sena are hardly averse to Modi being projected atthe national level.
Though the biggest stumbling block comes from JD(U), Modi’sacceptance within BJP at the national level would leave Bihar chief ministerNitish Kumar with less options. Given Modi’s proclivity to fashion his ownpolitics, he would be only too keen to forge a new coalition of allies aroundhis own persona.
With polling percentage touching nearly 70, it will now beextremely difficult to describe this victory from the prism of social division.The approval of his model came not only from urban areas but from rural andtribal areas as well.
Similarly, Modi was able to rope in a significant chunk ofminorities, particularly Muslims and Christians, which is a testimony to thefact that minorities are appreciative of his governance, even if they do notforgive him for the 2002 riots. A decade of riot-free regime, with a heavy doseof development and better administration, has combined to yield today’sresults.
in association with Governance Now
