MARGAO
One question that is increasingly being askedin political circles in the run-up to the 2027 Goa Assembly elections is: Whydoes Salcete matter so much to the prospects of an alliance among like-mindednon-BJP opposition parties?
The answer goes beyond the fact that eightAssembly constituencies fall within the Salcete taluka, which has a significantminority population. The larger political significance lies in the fact thatvirtually all the non-BJP parties—including the Congress, Aam Aadmi Party(AAP), Goa Forward Party (GFP) and Revolutionary Goans Party (RGP)—arecompeting for much of the same political space.
The ground reality sounds simple. The Congresswants to revive its traditional influence. The AAP wants to consolidate the twoseats it already holds and expand beyond them. The GFP wants to protect itspolitical base while remaining relevant to a wider opposition strategy. The RGP,meanwhile, has already moved closer to the Congress.
Each party has a different politicalcalculation, but their electoral interests overlap significantly.
Salceteoffers both opportunity and challenge
That makes Salcete both an opportunity and achallenge for the proposed Grand Alliance.
If the opposition parties can work out amutually acceptable seat-sharing arrangement in Salcete, it could provide atemplate for a broader understanding across Goa. If they fail to reconciletheir competing ambitions, the fragmentation of the non-BJP vote could remainone of the central issues confronting the opposition ahead of the 2027 Assemblyelections.
The Goa First alliance, launched withconsiderable political fanfare by AAP national convenor Arvind Kejriwal and GFPchief Vijai Sardesai, was projected as an alternative to the two principalpolitical formations. Yet the experiment appears to have run into difficultiesalmost immediately, with the alliance facing political resistance both withinthe regional party and outside it.
The reaction from Salcete is particularlysignificant. The political backlash appears to have forced a rethink within theGFP camp, with Sardesai subsequently speaking publicly about the possibility ofa Grand Alliance of opposition parties. The shift is noteworthy because theGFP's political base has traditionally been closely linked to the minorityelectorate, particularly in and around Fatorda.
The change in political messaging couldtherefore indicate an attempt to accommodate a broader opposition sentimentrather than remain confined to an arrangement involving only the AAP and GFP.
AAP'sSalcete ambitions complicate seat-sharing
With the Goa First experiment facinguncertainty, attention has once again shifted to the AAP and its next politicalmove in Goa. The key question is whether the Arvind Kejriwal-led party willeventually become part of a broader opposition alliance that includes theCongress.
On the face of it, the proposition may appearstraightforward. But the seat-sharing negotiations could prove far morecomplicated.
Sources say that AAP would certainly lay itsclaim on the two constituencies it currently holds—Benaulim and Velim. The moredifficult question, however, would be what happens beyond these two seats.
The party has sought to expand its presence inseveral other Salcete constituencies since the 2022 elections, includingCurtorim, Cuncolim, Nuvem and Navelim.
If the Congress were to agree to leaveBenaulim and Velim to the AAP, would the latter be satisfied with retainingjust two seats in the taluka?
That is unlikely to be an easy question foreither side. The AAP's political calculation would presumably involve more thanprotecting its existing Assembly presence.
For the Congress, the calculation would beequally difficult. Conceding additional Salcete seats to the AAP could helpconsolidate the anti-BJP vote, but it could also mean giving awayconstituencies in which the party hopes to regain lost ground.
This is the fundamental contradiction at theheart of any proposed opposition alliance: the parties may agree on the need tochallenge the BJP, but they do not necessarily agree on who should contestwhere.
Electionresults underline Congress dilemma
The results of the 2017 and 2022 Assemblyelections offer the Congress party important lessons on how it should approachthe coming polls.
Consider this: In the 2017 Assembly election,the Congress-led opposition alliance made a clean sweep in Salcete, winning alleight seats at stake. The impressive performance in the constituency helpedtake the Congress tally to 17 seats, making it the single-largest party in theAssembly. It is another matter that the party could not win the remaining fourseats needed to form the government.
In contrast, the Congress suffered a majorsetback in Salcete in the 2022 Assembly election, managing to win just three ofthe eight seats. The Aam Aadmi Party won two seats, while one each went to theGoa Forward Party, the BJP and an Independent candidate.
That was not all. Although the RevolutionaryGoans Party failed to win a single seat in Salcete, it put up an impressiveperformance and made deep inroads into what had traditionally been regarded asa minority stronghold, surprising many poll pundits.
The results in Salcete had a significantbearing on the Congress’s overall tally. The party managed to win just 11seats, leaving it stranded midway in its hopes of returning to power.
Congressfaces familiar choice
The bottom line from these two elections forthe Congress is simple: stitch together an alliance with like-minded parties orrisk a division of votes.
Against this backdrop, the Congress leadershipwill once again have to grapple with the same old question: how should itapproach the coming election in Salcete if it hopes to return to power in thestate in 2027?
