The surprise announcement by Goa Chief Minister Pramod Sawant that Goa would further relax Covid restrictions and allow more economic activity to resume but with “adequate precautions” is a double-edged sword for the state. On one hand, the activity that continued to remain shut -- like nightclubs, casinos, river cruises, water sports, etc are a huge draw for tourists to come to the state. On the other hand, the decision comes just as the state is emerging from the currently ongoing Ganesh festivities -- the results of which could take more than two weeks to become apparent.
Though Goa has been doing vaccinations at a fast pace -- with the percentage of the population that has been fully vaccinated just shy of 50% -- perhaps the Goa government could have chosen to wait at least for another two weeks to understand the effects of increased interactions on account of the festival that would have become more apparent. Also, a marginally higher percentage of the population would have been fully vaccinated by then.
Further, if one considered how casually organisers of events and owners of event venues take the government’s directive of “stringent protocols", then it is apparent that no sooner an activity is allowed to resume the “with adequate precaution” part is well and truly consigned to the dustbin and things quickly descend into a free-for-all. Goa experienced this very situation at this time last year when September onwards tourism activity was allowed to resume and tourism began to peak in December-January leading to jam-packed venues.
What is happening in the West should give us a glimpse of what we can expect going forward. Much of the western world reopened over the summer and has since then seen a resurgence in cases. Fortunately for them, much of the country were vaccinated before they reopened which has allowed them to keep severe cases and hospitalizations low and avoid running out of beds.
While Goa may show seemingly good numbers on paper, two things need to be watched out for. Firstly, the rest of the country has very poor vaccination rates and haven’t even completed vaccinating half their populations with even one dose. Secondly, Goa’s figures being touted by the government appear dubious.
While on paper Goa may have a population of 15.5 lakh, in reality the number of people residing in the state at any given time is far more than the reported figure, given that there are at least 2-3 lakh migrant labourers as well as others who make Goa their home, as was evidenced by the number of people who were sent back by Shramik special trains last year. In reality, Goa’s vaccination figures will be far less than what is projected by the government.
The least the government can do, for now, is to strictly enforce the protocol without fear or favour, and those establishments which are found violating the protocol should be promptly shuttered to send a message to others that any laxity will not be tolerated. Anything short of that, and we will be playing with fire.
