Rain is a natural blessing for all living organisms. It is part of nature’s balance and cannot be controlled by human laws. Science can explain many things, but nature often goes beyond full prediction. It is said that El Niño could strongly affect India by disrupting the south-west monsoon. This phenomenon has been observed in the past, including in 1977.
El Niño usually weakens the monsoon winds that bring moisture to the Indian subcontinent, leading to below-normal rainfall, according to studies. Sometimes, it can also increase the chances of droughts and severe heatwaves in many parts of the country. This year, the monsoon has been delayed, as June 2026 is nearing its end. A weak monsoon can directly affect India’s agriculture, reduce crop yields, increase food inflation, and put pressure on power supplies. This raises serious concern.
Even during an overall dry season, disrupted atmospheric conditions can still cause localised flash floods and extreme rainfall events, as seen in the past. However, weather predictions are never fully certain. Meteorological organisations, including the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and NOAA, are closely monitoring the situation. Forecasts suggest a developing El Niño, with concerns about its possible impact on rainfall and water resources.
El Niño is a climate pattern caused by the unusual warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming weakens the westward-blowing trade winds, causing warm water to shift towards the Americas instead of Asia. This disrupts global weather patterns. However, India also receives rainfall influenced by multiple factors, and therefore, a delayed monsoon does not always mean no monsoon. Rain may be delayed, but it is never denied, because nature always finds its own balance.
Rajesh Banaulikar, Arpora
