Dr M R Ramesh Kumar
Weather and climate influence nearly every aspect of human life. In India, where agriculture depends heavily on the June–September southwest monsoon, the economy is closely linked to seasonal rainfall. Variations in the monsoon can trigger floods, droughts and crop losses, affecting food production and livelihoods. Heavy rainfall, cyclones and strong winds also disrupt transport, communication and essential services while causing widespread damage to life and property, underscoring the critical importance of accurate weather forecasting and monsoon monitoring.
Industrial development also depends on weather conditions. The location of thermal power plants, refineries and factories must consider prevailing winds and atmospheric stability to minimise pollution. As industrialisation expands, particularly along the coast, concerns are growing over environmental degradation and the long-term impact of human activities on climate and ecological balance.
Climate and the importance of monsoon
Goa, spread across 3,701 sq km on India’s west coast, is bounded by Maharashtra, Karnataka and the Arabian Sea. Its climate shapes the daily lives of residents, influencing clothing, food habits, work routines and tourism.
Heavy monsoon spells often disrupt roads, power supply, water distribution and communication, while pre-monsoon thunderstorms uproot trees and damage infrastructure. Conversely, the pleasant post-monsoon season and mild winter make Goa one of India’s leading tourist destinations, supporting thousands of livelihoods.
Weather information is also vital for planners designing roads, railways, airports and major infrastructure projects. Two key features determine every monsoon season: the date of monsoon onset and the pattern of active and break phases.
Monsoon 2026: A slow start
The southwest monsoon reached Goa on June 6, almost exactly on its normal date. However, rainfall distribution during June was uneven, with prolonged dry spells.
Goa normally records about 909 mm of rainfall over 22 rainy days in June, followed by 1,119 mm over 27 rainy days in July, 708 mm in August, and 328 mm in September. July alone contributes nearly 37% of the seasonal rainfall, followed by June (30%), August (23%) and September (10%).
This year, Goa experienced eight non-rainy days in June and four more till July 16, highlighting the weak start to the season despite the timely onset.
The southwest monsoon covered the entire country only on July 9, a day later than normal. Rainfall was further affected by the formation of only one short-lived depression over the Bay of Bengal in early July. A strong typhoon over the South China Sea also contributed to a six-day monsoon break across India, coinciding with weak rainfall over Goa.
The road ahead and water security
Monsoon rainfall depends on several large-scale weather systems, including the monsoon trough, cross-equatorial flow, low-level jet stream, El Niño/La Niña, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
Meteorologists expect conditions to improve in the coming weeks as the Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to turn positive during early August and the Madden-Julian Oscillation shifts into phases favourable for stronger convection over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, increasing the likelihood of more monsoon depressions.
Changing climate patterns and rising sea surface temperatures also threaten marine ecosystems by forcing fish to migrate to cooler or deeper waters.
While reduced rainfall may benefit some agricultural activities, it raises concerns about drinking water availability. Greater emphasis on rainwater harvesting, groundwater recharge, and the rejuvenation of wells, ponds, lakes and springs can significantly reduce dependence on the Public Works Department for water supply.
Experts also recommend that the Water Resources Department prepare a comprehensive White Paper on Goa’s water resources to strengthen long-term water security and improve resilience against increasingly erratic monsoon seasons.
(The writer is Chief Scientist (Retd), National Institute of Oceanogaphy, Dona Paula)
